TRANSCRIPT:
This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Luis Hernandez: It’s now officially hurricane season, and officials with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration say we could see more storms than usual this year. Here to talk more about that and hurricane preparedness, in general, is Dr. Isaac Ginis, Professor of Oceanography at the University of Rhode Island. Professor, great to talk to you again.
Isaac Ginis: Thanks for having me.
Hernandez: So NOAA is predicting the 2024 hurricane season is going to be busier. Why?
Ginis: The main reason is the excessive ocean heat that is available for storms to develop and intensify. So the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic has been shattering records over the last year, and it’s not only the temperature at the ocean surface, but also in deeper levels that is extremely high. So hurricanes draw the energy from the entire upper ocean and this amount of heat we believe will be conducive for storms to intensify, sometimes rapidly intensify, and also stay longer and grow bigger.
Hernandez: Usually up here in New England, we avoid the brunt of a lot of these big storms. These hurricanes, usually by the time they get up here, in most cases, are downgraded to tropical storms by the time they hit us. But because the ocean temperatures are warmer, because we’re looking at a possibly busier season, is that something we should be concerned about up here?
Ginis: Well, we should always be concerned about storms. If we look at the history of the storms in New England, we’ve had storms of Category 3 reaching 130 miles per hour, making landfall in Rhode Island, 1938, 1954. And there’s some conditions including the high ocean temperatures that can help the hurricane to maintain the high intensity when they move to the north. But also we need to remember that our storms affecting our area are often more complex than the hurricanes in the south, affecting Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. And one of the reasons is that storms moving to the north often interact with the weather systems that are more typical in winter storms. So these storms become so-called extratropical, and they have these hybrid characteristics of the tropical storms, hurricanes and nor’easters. As a result, they could be much more complex, they can increase in size. Remember Superstorm Sandy reached almost 1000 miles in diameter and the wind can be very complex, the wind forcing and also the rainfall. So actually predicting hurricanes moving to the north is often more difficult than traditional hurricanes.
Hernandez: You mentioned a couple of the years where we got hit by a big storm. When is the last time, though, Rhode Island got hit by a big storm? Was it Sandy?
Ginis: So the last Category 3 storm, which is a major hurricane, made landfall in Rhode Island was in 1954, Hurricane Carol.
Hernandez: Do you think because of that we’ve become a little apathetic here in Rhode Island because we think, well, we don’t get hit with big storms very often?
Ginis: My biggest concern is that many people, especially the younger generation, have never experienced a hurricane. We’re just not very well prepared, first to actually know what needs to be done in preparing your house, your family. And secondly, one of the biggest concerns is the aftermath of big storm events. So it’s not only surviving the storm itself, but very often big events associated with a power outage, road closures. I always advise people in Rhode Island to be prepared to be on your own, autonomous, for a number of days. In the big storms, it could be a week.
Hernandez: With all of your research that you’ve done, I’m just curious what you think about looking ahead into the future. If the climate is changing as it is and the planet is warming and the ocean is warming, what do you think about the future of hurricanes?
Ginis: Well, we expect that with global warming, the intensity of hurricanes will continue to increase. So we will see, and this is just the law of physics, more hurricanes of so-called major categories: 3, 4 and 5. So we might not see more hurricanes, but we’ll see more intense hurricanes. They also can grow in size. Some studies also suggest that storms would move slower and that would produce more rain. And that would, of course, cause not only damage from the wind, but also significant damage from inland and coastal flooding.
Hernandez: Dr. Isaac Ginis, professor of oceanography at the University of Rhode Island, it’s always a pleasure. I appreciate the time and the insight.
Ginis: Thanks for having me.
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